The monthly CEDEX™ (Carbon Emissions Index) report is prepared to provide an early heads up on Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions trends for the stationary energy and transport sectors.

CEDEX presents all data on a moving 12-month average basis to remove seasonal effects. Its numbers can therefore be compared directly with the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI), but unlike the NGGI’s two to three year lag, CEDEX reports on data within two months. The Index covers around 80 per cent of energy-related emissions in Australia, and more importantly, these sectors have accounted for more than 90 per cent of the increase in Australia’s total emissions since 1990.

Looking at the data, something very interesting is going on. Since the end of 2008 or even a little earlier, black coal has been on a big slide in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Renewables and gas are capturing most of the market share from coal, with brown coal up a little as well.

The fall-off in black coal generation is significant. It is down eight terawatt hours per annum, or around 7 per cent from its peak in the year ending October 2008. It’s been about five years since annual output from black coal was last at today’s levels (the data is current to end-April 2010); and there is no sign yet of a turnaround. So, despite rising demand for electricity (back almost to where it was pre-GFC), annual emissions from electricity generation on the east coast of Australia are now more than 5.5 megatonnes lower than their June 2009 peak. Too long to be a random ‘blip’, the reduction in output from black coal has been concentrated almost entirely in New South Wales; while output from coal in other states has been fairly flat in recent years.

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So – what is behind this? And can we keep it up?